Is Ukraine ready to join the EU?

As his appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos confirmed, President Yushchenko has now formed coherent plans for Ukrainian entry into the European Union, and has made the implement of them a key aim of his presidency. He has produced an ambitious 3 year plan of strict reforms, which should allow for formal negotiations about Ukraine`s entry to commence in 2007. These reforms are welcome, and indeed long overdue. But is the EU really such a Holly Grail to be sought after?

Take Britain as an example. We`ve been flirting with Europe for more than 30 years now, and have little to show for it. We have yet to accept the euro as our currency, and may well reject the European constitution when a referendum on it is presented to us by the government in about a year's time. At present, it is estimated that EU membership has already cost Britain around 11 bn pounds (Hr 110 bn), and this number continues to rise every year. The weight of bureaucracy imposed upon the country is also notable, experts have calculated that four out of five of our laws currently come directly from the EU. Supporters of the united Europe argue that, although our membership costs us heavily, we gain much greater influence over European affairs as a result of it. However, it`s hard to see quite where this influence lies, Britain never seems to come out well from the various EU fishing and agriculture deals, and we could not raise support in the UN from France and Germany for the invasion of Iraq.

Clearly there are advantages to Ukraine`s entry, but they are not quite as strong as they seem. Firstly, EU membership would allow greater freedom of movement across Europe for Ukrainian citizens without the requirement of having a visa. However, this sort of travel would still be too expensive for the vast majority of the population on any regular basis. Moreover, most Western European countries have now introduced restrictions on such travel to prevent mass immigration from some of the poorer areas of Eastern Europe.

The second advantage often cited by the pro-Europe camp is that entry would draw large amounts of financial backing from abroad. After all, Ukraine represents an attractive opportunity for investors with its industrious workforce, abundant natural resources and rich arable land. But such money is likely to appear anyway, the world is keeping its eye on Ukraine at the moment, given its newly invigorated links with the West and many foreign companies are preparing their investment strategies. Seeing the somewhat tepid EU response to President Yushchenko advances, it would be prudent to examine whether the union in fact welcomes Ukrainian entry. From the political maneuvering visible at the Davos forum, it seems the area defined by Donald Rumsfeld as /Old Europe/ is underwhelmed by possibility, whilst countries like Poland and Lithuania gave their approval. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso was none too supportive, talking vaguely of Ukraine`s future in Europe without giving any promises relating to Yushchenko's plans. Many member states are worried about the prospect of letting Ukraine join so soon after admitting 8 other relatively poor Eastern European countries.

Overall, it seems that Ukraine and the EU are not destined to be together for a good while yet and that forcing the entry might be unwise. A more cautious path for President Yushchenko to follow could lie with the European Neighborhood Policy, which would allow him greater economic and political ties to Europe without commitment to entry on either side. Ukraine has enough problems of its own to deal with for now without taking on a continent's load.

Kyiv Weekly #5 (145) February 11-18, 2005 pg 4